
【研究报告内容摘要】EventPerourupdatedanalysisofnewcontainerboardprojectsinChina(Fig13)weexpectnetsupplygrowthtoslowdownto~3-4%in14-16Evs.6-12%in2011-13andthusutilizationtoriseto88%in16Efrom82%in2013.Weforecastcontainerboardpricetorecoverby+1%/5%in14/15E.WecutLee&Man’s14/15EEPSby9%/10%andTPtoHK$5.5basedon1.4x2014/15EblendedBVPS.WealsolowerNineDragon’s2014/15EPSby1-6...

Contractedsalesin1Q14atRmb9.13bn,locking-in16%offull-yeartarget。Longforreported1Q14contractedsales-10%YoYtoRmb9.13bnbyvalueandcontractedGFA–16%YoYto840ksqm,locking-in16%ofitsFY14contractedsalestargetofRmb57bn.Meanwhile,contractedASPstoodatRmb10,869/sqm(+7%YoY).ForthemonthofMar,LongforachievedcontractedsalesofRmb4.06bn(-2%YoY,+100%MoM)andcontractedGFAof341ksqm(-1...

EventWelowerour2014/15Ethermalcoalpriceforecastsby5%/4%toRMB550/530pertonne.Weseeashort-termreboundinlate2Qandbelievethepricewilllikelyfluctuatearoundthecostcurveinthemediumterm.Wecutour2014Ecokingcoalpriceforecastby7%toRMB1,000/t(-12%y-y)butretainourpreviousy-ygrowthforecastin2015-18E.Theoversupplysituationappearsmuchworsethanouralreadybearishview.ImpactThermalcoal-amildreboundin...