
EventWecutShanshui’s14/15EASPforecastsby2/1%andunitcostsby3%p.a.onlowercoalpriceassumptions,resultingina2%/4%higherGP/tatRmb61/62/t.Accordingly,weraise14/15EPSby7%/18%andraiseTPfromHK$2.5toHK$3.5,based5x14/15EblendedEV/EBITDA(vs.4.3xpreviouslyaswetakeaccountofmorepotentialASPupsideinShandong).MaintainNeutral.WeareturninglessbearishontheShandongmarketassupply/d...

What’sNewOurchannelchecksforChinadevelopersunderourcoverageshowthatAprilpresalesfiguresshouldbequitemixed,withsomedeveloperslikelytopostaMoMdropwhileothersanincrease.WebelieveJuneshouldbethepeaklaunchperiodin2Qforthestockswecoverwithstrongcontractsalestoberecorded.Mostdevelopersexpecttheir2Qcontractsalestoexceed1Q’sandweexpectbyJune,ourcoverage’saveragelock-inratiovstheirfull-year...